兴业投资外汇欧洲盘前： 市场情绪略微缓和，但仍面临恶化的风险（2011年7月13日）

兴业投资外汇欧洲盘前：市场情绪略微缓和，但仍面临恶化的风险


2011年7月13日





周三亚洲时段相对周二来说，市场情绪略微缓和，亚洲股市在小幅低开后，逐渐反弹，日经指数最终收盘上涨0.4%，市场情绪的缓和一方面是因为市场在经历了周二的恐慌情绪后，逐渐恢复理性，另一方面是因为亚洲时段公布的中国第二季度实际GDP年率好于预期，暂时缓和了市场对中国经济增长放缓的担忧。不过目前来看，市场情绪还并没有出现根本好转，在欧洲时段仍面临再次恶化的风险，最可能导致市场情绪再度承压的因素是隔夜美国尾盘时穆迪将爱尔兰评级降至垃圾级别，上周穆迪也是在美国尾盘时下调了葡萄牙评级，随后在第二天欧洲时段市场因此持续承压，而且今天情况比上周的更加糟糕，上周在希腊议会通过了财政紧缩计划后，市场对希腊债务问题有所缓解，甚至倾向于乐观，而现在刚好相反，不但希腊债务问题重新引起了市场的担忧，紧接着还有意大利和爱尔兰，而目前欧盟仍未能就希腊援助方案达成一致。欧元日子不好过，美元也并不轻松，隔夜美联储公布的会议纪要显示，美联储继续倾向采取观望态度，若经济增长过于缓慢，将不排除采取进一步宽松政策的可能，若美联储进一步扩大宽松政策，对美元同样也是不小的打击，尤其是美国现在也面临债务问题，而到目前为止美国国会仍未能就上调债务上限问题达成一致。





短期来看，欧债问题仍将持续，避险货币会受到支持，不过美元面临美联储进一步扩大宽松政策以及美国自身的债务问题这2个不利因素，而日元则面临日央行入市干预的风险，可能只有瑞郎和黄金才是避险需求的真正归宿。





英镑/美元：汇价在昨日美国时段大幅反弹，最终收复了日内全部跌幅，而在今日汇价再次小幅上扬，日图技术指标也有反弹的迹象，不过考虑到日图整体趋势仍偏向下行，倾向反弹破败后做空，初步关注5日和10日均线阻力。









美元/日元：昨日受市场恐慌情绪影响，日元大幅走强，美元/日元跌破了重要支持80.00，短期走势已转为看跌，现倾向寻机做空，不过今日亚洲股市开盘前，在缺乏明确消息的情况下，汇价突然大幅回落，最低触及了78.45，有引发日央行再次干预的风险，建议保持适度谨慎。


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